Self Scout: A Review Of My 2020 Predictions
During training camp I joined Packers Worldwide and did a 4-part series analyzing and predicting the outcome of every Packers game in 2020. I ended the series with this quote.
“If my optimistic predictions are accurate, the Bears will be out of the playoffs by week 17, and the Packers will be competing for a playoff bye….The Packers will get tested, but will ultimately prevail, vaulting them into playoff readiness with a record of 12-4.“Bears not making the playoffs: wrong! Packers being 12-4: almost! Packers beating the Bears: Duh.
Aaron Rodgers returned to MVP form, the defense is playing their best at the perfect time and the Packers proved all of the doubters wrong by once again finishing 13-3 in the regular season under Matt Lafleur.
I had the Packers going 12-4, winning the North and competing for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. I was almost accurate in my prediction of the overall record, but the only loss I predicted correctly was week 11 @ Colts.
The other games I had the Packers losing were week three @ Saints, week nine @ 49ers, and week 16 vs. Titans — all resulted in convincing Green Bay victories. Which leaves week six @ Buccaneers and week eight vs. Vikings as the only games I predicted as wins that turned into losses.
The first half of my predictions showed mixed results (4-4), but I finished strong, hitting seven of the final eight.
So, overall I was 11-5 — not bad. However, one glaring mistake was the lack of confidence in Green Bay’s offense. I expected the offense to be better, but I didn’t expect them to go supernova. In six conference games I predicted the Packers to go 6-0 and score 119 points. In reality, the Packers went 5-1 and scored 214(!!) points.
Week 1 @ Vikings – 23 points
Week 2 vs. Lions – 20 points
Week 8 vs. Vikings – 20 points
Week 12 vs. Bears – 16 points
Week 14 @ Lions – 23 points
Week 17 @ Bears – 17 points
Week 1 @ Vikings – 43 points
Week 2 vs. Lions – 42 points
Week 8 vs. Vikings – 22 points (L)
Week 12 vs. Bears – 41 points
Week 14 @ Lions – 31 points
Week 17 @ Bears – 35 points
Here are three times my final score predictions came close to the actual outcome:
1. Week 4 vs. Falcons
My prediction: Packers 28 Falcons 16
Outcome: Packers 30 Falcons 16
2. Week 7 @ Texans
Prediction: Packers 33 Texans 23
Outcome: Packers 35 Texans 20
3. Week 10 vs. Jaguars
Prediction: Packers 24 Jaguars 14
Outcome: Packers 24 Jaguars 20
Here are three times my final score predictions were NOT so close:
Week 6 @ Buccaneers
Prediction: Packers 27 Buccaneers 20
Outcome: Packers 10 Buccaneers 38
2. Week 9 @ 49ers
Prediction: Packers 17 49ers 23
Outcome: Packers 34 49ers 17
3. Week 16 vs. Titans
Prediction: Packers 20 Titans 26
Outcome: Packers 40 Titans 14